CPX / OMEGA · KALSHI QUANT RESEARCH V4

PROVE THE EDGE.
THEN TRADE.

Gold, silver, platinum, palladium, oil, BTC and ETH. Timestamped public quotes, forward forecasts, a no-change benchmark, measurable error and fail-closed paper-trading limits. Live exchange execution remains disabled.

KALSHI SNAPSHOTS—Persisted observations

FORECASTS—Committed before evaluation

EVALUATED—Matched later quotes

PAPER P&L STATUS—No live account balance

MODEL PROMOTIONNO-GOBaseline and risk gates

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Independent forecast audit

Evaluated model predictions—

Unique forecast windows—

Model squared error—

No-change squared error—

Latest Kalshi observation—

Model promotion requires at least 40 evaluated 15-minute momentum forecasts across 10 distinct intervals, plus at least 2% lower mean squared error than the no-change baseline. This is an initial gate, not proof of sustainable alpha. Cold-start cases are not model-performance evidence.

Risk governor

Virtual opening capital$25.00

Maximum hypothetical entry incl. fees$5.00

Maximum concurrent exposure$10.00

Daily paper loss stop−$5.00

Recorded paper entries—

Unclosed paper positions—

Automated real ordersDISABLED

Paper results assume public quoted prices, estimated fees and conservative slippage. Order-book depth and authenticated Kalshi execution have not been verified.

Kalshi market continuity — last 24 hours

Market series	Snapshots	Distinct contracts
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PROVE THE EDGE.THEN TRADE.

Independent forecast audit

Risk governor

Kalshi market continuity — last 24 hours

PROVE THE EDGE.
THEN TRADE.