Constrained trading-research pilot with real public quotes, an automated observation loop, optional automated paper entries, and a settlement audit trail. Nothing here can place a real order or move money.
EXECUTION STATE
RESEARCH / PAPERReal-money trades unavailable until exchange authorization, account identity, risk controls, and strategy validation are complete.
Virtual starting capital$25.00Separate from real exchange balance
Paper cash available$25.00After hypothetical reservations
Open paper risk$0.00Maximum $10 outstanding
Paper realized P&L$0.00Manual settlement · unverified
Non-negotiable controls
Risk configuration
FAIL CLOSED
Initial paper bankroll$25.00
Maximum single entry, incl. fee buffer$5.00
Default automatic paper entry$1.00
Open positions / open risk2 / $10.00
Daily realized-loss stop$5.00
Automatic paper entries per day2
Optional replenishmentOne × $25 (manual)
Live deposits / live buy ordersDISABLED
Amounts are an experimental simulation policy, not your actual available funds. Paper entries reserve a hypothetical $0.25 fee buffer; real exchange fees must be calculated before live activation.
No reload has been applied. The application cannot add real funds.
Automated research
Observation engine
PAUSED
Samples publicly returned Kalshi and Polymarket quotes while this tab is open. The baseline model uses the market midpoint as an implied probability; this is not a demonstrated forecasting advantage.
Sampling interval180 seconds
Recorded observations0
Last collectionNot yet
Start research to begin collecting observations.
Kalshi outcomes are checked against the public market detail API when scanning; paper fills and positions remain simulations. The browser must stay open for continuous sampling. No backend scheduler or durable multi-device database is configured in this pilot.
Live market observations
Candidate research queue.
Only quoted markets passing basic spread and liquidity screens enter the candidate queue. These screens do not prove positive expected value.
No scan yet
Exchange
Market
Buy YES (ask)
Spread
Volume
Baseline p
Paper action
Run a scan to load research candidates.
Experimental audit ledger
Every hypothetical position, accounted for.
Paper fills assume displayed ask prices without slippage. Actual fills, fees, cancellations and realized exchange results will differ.
Paper entries0
Open0
Settled outcomes0
Exchange-verified0
Verified Brier score—
Opened
Market
Entry
Quantity
Total reserved
State
Action
No paper trades have been recorded.
Algorithm evaluation
Measure edge. Don't invent it.
Verified Brier scores compare entry-time implied probabilities with actual Kalshi market settlements. Lower is better, but using market prices as predictions is a baseline, not trained alpha. Strategy performance must be evaluated against an honest out-of-sample baseline with transaction costs, slippage, realistic order fills, and independently verified resolutions.
Phase 1 — Running capability
Gather observations
Capture timestamps, market IDs, bid/ask quotes, midpoint probability and volume. Deduplicate by observation window, then export data for offline analysis.
AVAILABLE WHILE TAB OPEN
Phase 2 — Validation
Prove forecast quality
Link actual exchange-resolved events, build calibrated forecasts, compare Brier score and log loss to market odds, then test walk-forward performance net of fees.
EXCHANGE RESOLUTION CHECK ENABLED
Phase 3 — Controlled live execution
Authorize trade gateway
Use a verified account, server-side signing, persistent ledger, exchange balance reconciliation, kill switch, position limits, idempotent limit orders and operator-controlled reloads.
BLOCKED / NO CREDENTIALS
Hard boundary: no autonomous deposits.
The optional additional $25 is not accessible to the algorithm. It cannot reload money or raise its own risk budget. Only a deliberate operator action in the official exchange can fund an account. This page cannot place live orders.
OMEGAPilot control