Implied probability vs actual settlementREAL HISTORICAL CONTRACTS
Dots show the YES quote sampled before settlement and the final YES/NO outcome. They are not claims of order execution.
◈ OMEGA / RESEARCH ENGINE V3
ALPHA IS
EARNED.
Kalshi-only probability research. Public one-minute bid/ask history, verified settlement labels, chronological train/validation/holdout separation, and risk-constrained strategy searches. Not affiliated with Renaissance, Bridgewater, BlackRock or Goldman Sachs.
● KALSHI PUBLIC MARKETS15M / 1H / HYBRIDSETTLEMENT-VERIFIED LABELSNO AUTOMATED REAL ORDERS
Loading actual Kalshi price history. Strategy search remains disabled until data quality checks pass.
QUALIFIED CONTRACTS—Real market history
CONFIGURATIONS CHECKED—Training-only optimization
VALIDATION NET RESULT—Hypothetical after fees
VALIDATION WIN RATE—Win rate alone isn't edge
EXECUTION DECISIONNO GOActual trading locked
01 / PRICE & PREDICTIVE RESEARCH
PUBLIC KALSHI CANDLES · NOT HISTORICAL FILLSSettlement intelligence
Historical data & validation auditNO LOOKAHEAD
TRAINING —
VALIDATION —
UNTOUCHED HOLDOUT —
INDEPENDENT TIME GROUPS —
MAX QUOTE STALENESS 120 SECONDS
ENTRY SLIPPAGE ASSUMPTION 0.5¢
KALSHI GENERAL TAKER FEE 0.07 × C × P × (1−P)
Fee schedule can vary by product. Fills, depth and execution delay are not verified. A real-money edge requires stronger data.
02 / SIMONS × DALIO INSPIRED RESEARCH
TRAIN → VALIDATE → HOLDOUT ONLY IF PASSEDOptimization with a risk governor
Cost-adjusted validation balancePAPER CAPITAL
No validated equity trajectory yet.
Risk budget & model gateFAIL-CLOSED
STARTING VIRTUAL BANKROLL $25.00
MAXIMUM PAPER ENTRY $5.00
MAXIMUM OPEN EXPOSURE $10.00
DAILY LOSS STOP −$5.00
POSITIVE VALIDATION REQUIRED NOT MET
VALIDATION SETTLEMENT WINDOWS —
NO TRADE: no independent, cost-adjusted advantage has been established.
Price-shock Z distributionSTANDARDIZED
Monte Carlo bankroll tail risk100,000 BOOTSTRAPS
Bootstrap distribution is a scenario stress test, not a return prediction.
03 / METALS · ENERGY · DIGITAL ASSETS
DATA QUALITY, NOT PROMISED PROFITSMarket opportunity matrix
| MARKET | WINDOW | USABLE CONTRACTS | AVG YES SPREAD | YES OUTCOMES | RESEARCH STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading market history… | |||||
04 / SELF-HEALING RESEARCH GOVERNANCE
Improve the engine. Preserve the evidence.
Reject missing or crossed books, stale quotes, ambiguous settlements and non-executable entry prices.
Prefer the no-trade baseline whenever independent validation fails. Preserve losing model configurations and their diagnostics.
Track correlated gold/silver, oil, and BTC/ETH exposure; avoid counting many similar contracts as independent bets.